Everyone can see how much corn is still in the field. Should it stay in the field over the winter? With lots of corn still standing in very wet fields and carrying a high moisture content maybe leaving the corn in the field is something to consider.
Joe Lauer, University of Wisconsin Corn Agronomist examined the amount of yield loss during winter months in Wisconsin.
Many factors are going to influence the decision to harvest yet this fall or delay until spring. Some factors can be assessed now, such as stalk strength, ear health, insect damage, and shank attachment. Fields with good stalk strength and a soundly attached ear might be good candidate fields for delaying harvest; however, crop health only has one direction to go…down. Beyond plant integrity, factors such as wildlife damage and weather will play a major role in ear retention the following spring.
If a corn grower is seriously considering leaving corn stand through winter, the most important question that needs to be answered is, “Will the revenue lost by winter crop damage be less than the cost of drying this fall?” If the value of corn loss over winter from ear drop, fungus, or animal feeding is more than the drying bill would have been if harvested this fall, then it doesn’t make sense to leave corn stand until spring.
As corn price increases, producers can tolerate paying a greater price for drying. Additionally, as the percentage of yield loss through winter increases, farmers can justify paying a greater drying cost. For example, if this winter has heavy snowfall, with a 35% yield loss by April harvest, the producer would be able to pay just over $1.31 /bu for drying corn worth $3.75 /bu (2009 price) to generate the same amount of revenue. Mathematically speaking, $3.75/bu X .35 = $1.31. If in an average year 25% of corn yield is lost over winter, at $3.75 /bu, the grower can pay up to $0.94 /bu for drying and breakeven with field loss.
Rather than leaving the crop stand in the field until the following spring, which can create problems preparing for the next crop, the grower might consider harvesting sometime in mid-winter.
Unfortunately, it is very difficult to predict now if there will be heavy snowfall or ice sheeting come January so the decision largely becomes a matter of risk management. If the grower feels they have no other choice but to leave the crop in the field, they should contact their insurance agent prior to the crop insurance deadline to discuss options.
Corn already sold for delivery through a forward contract also increases price risk if the field fails to hold yield and the grain is short of the contracted delivery amount. Another increased risk is the potential for more pest management problems such as more volunteer corn in the following crop.
Deciding when to harvest this wet crop will be a tough decision, largely depending on weather factors outside of the grower’s control. In times of great volatility, the decision that best manages risk is the most sensible.
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